Welcome to our online service, where we can help you with time-series prediction. With our service, you can:
- Predict the future trends of economic and financial variables,
- Track and compare your expectations over time with historical data and forecasts,
- Create and manage your own projects to focus on specific variables of interest.
Start exploring our service today. You can see the [list of available projects](/home) or you can [create a new project](/create).
Some actions require account information: Please sign in with Google.
## Working together for a common cause
Expectations of future variables can be valuable. As a consumer, this information can help you make informed decisions about saving and spending. As a manager, it can guide your investment choices. As a policymaker, you can use it to regulate the economy and promote economic growth while reducing poverty.
On this site, we assess expectations of future variables in the context of collective action for the common cause. [Participate](/home) in a project or [create](/create) a new project and be a part of something big.
## Your opinion matters
A project on this site mainly aims to capture the expectations about future trends of economic and financial variables. The creator/manager of the project is interested in others' views on how these variables will change over time. Your participation can help you (and others) to understand the related dynamics and uncertainties. By participating, you can share your insights and learn from others.
We try our best to design a convenient and interactive environment, such that you can convey your message more safely, clearly, and effectively. Note that your privacy and that of the participants is our priority (Please read our [policy](/documentMD?id=privacy)).
## Your opinion
To express your opinion/expectation, you have three options:
1. You can choose to indicate the direction of change, whether the future value will rise or fall relative to the current value, alternatively,
1. you can provide an exact value for the variable as a point prediction, or,
1. you can express your expectation with a degree of uncertainty by providing a probabilistic forecast.
Your participation is important, regardless of the level of information you choose to provide.
## Your performance
For each project, external predictions are typically generated using statistical models. If the manager provides new actual data in subsequent updates, you can see how well your predictions matched the actual outcomes, or you can evaluate your performance by comparing it to external or other users' predictions. Based on the nature of your prediction, we will provide one or more of the following accuracy metrics:
1. Directional Score,
1. Percentage Error, and,
1. Continuous Ranked Probability Score.
This information will be available in your prediction profile, allowing you to track your performance over time.
For more information about the scoring rules, see [LDT package](https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/ldt/index.html) or [create page](/create).
## Your data and your rules
You can easily create and manage a project by following these steps:
1. select a variable that you are interested in. We currently focus on time-series data, especially economic and financial variables (we do not support binary or multi-class classification yet),
1. select some rules for conducting a survey (if you are interested in), and,
1. start new sessions (for example when new data is available).
This way, we can compute and report the explained scores for the survey participants. Note that your privacy and that of the participants is our priority (Please read our [policy](/documentMD?id=privacy)).